COMTESS - Sustainable Coastal Land Management: Trade-offs in Ecosystem Services

WP 5 Modelling of biodiversity and plant- mediated ecosystem servies (ESS) in response to land use management and environmental change

WP 5 will yield the ecological evaluation of the COMTESS scenarios by statistically modelling the functional and response diversity (WP 5.1) and developing a process- based model for the spatio- temporal dynamics of key species and plant- mediated ESS (WP 5.2). For this purpose, WP 5 will upscale the plot-level one (or two)-year measurements of WP 1 - 4 to the landscape scale and to time scales ranging from 2010 to 2100. The statistical niche modelling of WP 5.1 will be enhanced with the transient plant community dynamics captured by the individual- based model of WP 5.2. Finally, the insurance effect of functionally redundant species on the resilience of ESF and, thus, the provision of ESS will be analysed for variable environmental conditions. The predicting results from WP 5 will be summarized in a GIS modelling shell used by WP 8 for the ecological- economic analysis.